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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since: 10/04/08

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Mar 6 09 4:29 PM

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Solar Cycle Progression

The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Cycle Progression page provides a useful source of information on Solar Cycle 24.
The latest announcement issued March 2, 2009 says:
The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has not issued any updates to their prediction. However, the Space Weather Prediction Center, and the Chair of the Prediction Panel decided to implement what they believe to be an obvious change to the plotted data. The two predictions, of maximum being either a SSN of 90 or a SSN of 140 remain intact.
Once the date of solar minimum is known, that is all the information needed to arrive at a prediction curve. The panel prediction of solar minimum in March, 2008 has been eclipsed. Minimum will now occur no earlier than August, 2008.
For every month beyond March 2008 that minimum slips, it is necessary to shift the prediction curves by the same amount. SWPC commenced doing so in mid-February and will continue to do so, unless or until the prediction panel sets a new predicted date for the time of solar minimum.
NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center - Solar Cycle Progression
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html

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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since:10/04/08

#1 [url]

Mar 15 09 2:38 PM

Two New Sunspots ?

The SpaceWeather.com website says that two proto-sunspots are simmering near the sun's equator. Could they be the start of the long-awaited upturn in sunspot activity ?
SpaceWeather.com says
The sun is blank, but maybe not for long.
Two proto-sunspots are simmering near the sun's equator.
Their locations are shown in this magnetogram.
http://www.spaceweather.com/images2009/15mar09/
mag512_lab.jpg?PHPSESSID=4fnrq1h445q2nt5257mttd2pp6

Space Weather website
http://www.spaceweather.com/

Thanks to George Boorer ZL3PN for spotting this item

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enigma685

Posts: 1,325 Member Since:12/07/08

#2 [url]

May 1 09 10:07 AM

Solar cycle 23 sunspot group re-emerges

On Thursday solar cycle 23 sunspot group S740 re-emerged near S08W64. Today NOAA/SWPC assigned it #10116.
Solar cycle 23 is now 13 years long from first spot to present one, an extension of the already record long solar cycle!
Besides space plasma physics, I also have education in paleoclimatology, meteorology and oceanography.
Having said that I am becoming seriously concerned that we are really headed for a second 'Dalton Minimum' and it's attendant global cooling for a period of 20-30 years.
Another 'Dalton Minimum' will put quite a strain on resources such as food and petroleum.
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o@tampabay.rr.com
LF/MF/HF/VHF/UHF Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather
NZ4O Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since:10/04/08

#3 [url]

May 7 09 11:43 AM

The sun is stirring

NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft is monitoring an active region hiddenbehind the sun's eastern limb.
On May 5th, it produced an impressive coronal mass ejection (CME) and a burst of radio emissions signalling the passage of a shock wave through the sun's outer atmosphere.
Activity continued apace on, May 6th, with at least two more eruptions. The blast site is not yet visible from Earth, but the sun is turning the region toward us for a better view.
Is a new-cycle sunspot in the offing?
Readers with solar telescopes could see it emerge as early as May 7th or 8th.
Item from Space Weather News for May 6, 2009
http://spaceweather.com/

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sispy

Posts: 1,579 Member Since:11/05/08

#4 [url]

Jun 2 09 9:26 PM

 

New Solar Cycle Prediction

An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle...
http://www.southgatearc.org/news/june2009/new_solar_cycle_prediction.htm
Yet another prediction. Could it be possible that sooner or later they will get one right?

For the latest information about Ham Radio, Communications, Radio News, Space, Radio History...Join me in the discussion at hamchatforum.lefora.com

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sispy

Posts: 1,579 Member Since:11/05/08

#5 [url]

Jun 23 09 11:30 PM

New Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Group

On Monday a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the SW quadrant of the Sun near S22E41.
NOAA/SWPC should assign it #11023, with a beta magnetic signature.
We have seen four solar cycle 24 sunspot groups this month and six in the past 30 days. It appears that solar cycle 24 has finally come alive.
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o@arrl.net
NZ4O Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
and
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf72.htm

For the latest information about Ham Radio, Communications, Radio News, Space, Radio History...Join me in the discussion at hamchatforum.lefora.com

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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since:10/04/08

#6 [url]

Jul 5 09 12:15 PM

Sunspot Alert

Spaceweather.com reports that the sun is putting on its own 4th of July fireworks show.
The report says:
A new sunspot is rapidly emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere and it is crackling with B-class solar flares.
The magnetic polarity of sunspot 1024 identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24. It appears to be the best offering yet of the young solar cycle.
Check http://spaceweather.com for images and updates.

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enigma685

Posts: 1,325 Member Since:12/07/08

#7 [url]

Jul 6 09 11:56 AM

 

Solar Cycle 24 sunspot group continues to grow

Posted Sunday July 5, 2009
At 0707 UTC on Sunday morning, solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11024 released a small C 2.7 class solar flare. This the first C class flare of solar cycle 24 and the first C class solar flare since December 11, 2008.
Sunspot group #11024 is currently located at S26W01, which is geoeffective (Earth facing). If the C2.7 class solar flare released a coronal mass ejection (CME) it could create a minor geomagnetic storm on Earth a few days from now.
Sunspot group #11024 continues to grow in size and complexity and could release more small C class solar flares in future days. There is also a small chance that a medium size M class solar flare could also occur.

Posted Saturday July 04, 2009
This morning NOAA/SWPC assigned the new solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11024. It currently has a beta magnetic signature and continues to produce very small B class solar flares.
#11024 is growing in size and complexity and could produce small C class solar flares in coming days.
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o@arrl.net
You can find full reports at:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm and
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf72.htm

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sispy

Posts: 1,579 Member Since:11/05/08

#8 [url]

Aug 9 09 12:56 AM

Cycle 24 Webinar

Well-known propagation expert Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA will be giving a Webinar presentation on Cycle 24, August 19 at 8 PM EDT (August 20 - 00:00 UTC).
Here's an outline of the presentation:

Review of Cycle 23
Generate our own prediction for Cycle 24
Cycle 24 information
Cycle 24 impact to Contesting and DXing

The Webinar is hosted by the Potomac Valley Radio Club (PVRC) and is free.
Webinars allow people to attend a presentation using their PC, from the comfort of their home.
Audio is provided via the PC speakers. Attendees can ask questions of the presenter via a text box or with their microphone.
All you have to do to register is go to www.pvrc.org and click on the Webinar link. You will receive an e-mail with additional details about the Webinar and login instructions.
Previous Webinars are archived on the same page for viewing. Pass the word!


Ken Claerbout K4ZW
(k4zw@comcast.net)

President PVRC

For the latest information about Ham Radio, Communications, Radio News, Space, Radio History...Join me in the discussion at hamchatforum.lefora.com

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sispy

Posts: 1,579 Member Since:11/05/08

#9 [url]

Aug 29 09 7:24 PM

Two astronomers predict sunspots will soon disappear completely

Are sunspots disappearing for good?
Two solar researchers say this is the case.
Amateur Radio Newsline's Norm Seeley, KI7UP, has more:
Most hams users know that there is a direct correlation between sunspots and high frequency propagation conditions. In general, the more sunspots there are, the more DX you will be able to work. This usually happens in
11 year cycles with the last solar maximum having taken place in 2000.
The current Solar Cycle which is Cycle 24 should peak in roughly next year in 2010. Only one problem. There have been few sunspots this year and very little easy to work DX. And now there may be an answer as to why.
Spaceweather.com reports that astronomers Bill Livingston and Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona, have found that sunspot magnetic fields are definitely waning. Not only that. They say that sunspots could completely disappear within decades.
Livingston and Penn have been measuring solar magnetism since 1992. Their technique is based on a complex system called the Zeeman splitting of infrared spectral lines emitted by iron atoms in the vicinity of sunspots. They reached their conclusion by extrapolating their already collected data into the future.
But Spaceweather also says not to count out sunspots just yet. It notes that while the data of Livingston and Penn is widely thought to be correct, that any far reaching extrapolations may be premature. It says that this type of measurement is relatively new, and the data reaches back less than 17 years. In the end it appears as if the giant solar disk we call the sun is the only one who holds the answers to the future of its spots and how good DX will be in the coming years.

Norm Seeley, KI7UP
Amateur Radio Newsline.

And a bit of an astro physics lesson before we leave this story. For those not aware, sunspots are made of magnetism. In other words a sunspot is not matter but rather a strong magnetic field that appears dark because it
blocks the upward flow of heat from the sun's fiery depths. Spaceweather says that without magnetism, there would be no sunspots.
(Spaceweather, others)

report by http://hamchatforum.lefora.com

For the latest information about Ham Radio, Communications, Radio News, Space, Radio History...Join me in the discussion at hamchatforum.lefora.com

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sispy

Posts: 1,579 Member Since:11/05/08

#10 [url]

Sep 14 09 10:06 AM

When the sun goes quiet Earth shivers

The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper reports on concerns that the apparent decline in sunspot activity could result in cooler weather...
Read the full Sydney Morning Herald story by Stephen Cauchi at
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/when-the-sun-goes-
quiet-earth-shivers-20090912-flhk.html

For the latest information about Ham Radio, Communications, Radio News, Space, Radio History...Join me in the discussion at hamchatforum.lefora.com

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enigma685

Posts: 1,325 Member Since:12/07/08

#11 [url]

Sep 14 09 10:53 AM

Solar maximum sunspot count just 90 ?

The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) have issued a prediction that the next Solar maximum will be May 2013 with a predicted sunspot count of just 90.
The latest prediction can be seen at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt
This prediction follows on from other gloomy forecasts from various sources, however, it must be remembered that humankind knows next to nothing about the suns behaviour.
Data from solar observing satellites goes back barely 3 decades and visual recordings of sunspot data only extends over a few centuries. It is likely that the sun's activity is influenced by a mixture of a number of short term and longer term cycles some of which may extend over many millenia.
It will be quite sometime before we can fully understand the complex nature of the sun.
NASA - Are sunspots disappearing?
http://www.southgatearc.org/news/september2009/
are_sunspots_disappearing.htm

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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since:10/04/08

#12 [url]

Sep 22 09 8:34 PM

NASA tracks possible new-cycle sunspot

SpaceWeather.com reports that NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft is tracking an active region over the sun's eastern horizon that could be a large, new-cycle sunspot.
We can't yet see it from Earth, but the sun's rotation is turning the region toward us, and it could pop into view as early as September 21st.
Readers with solar telescopes should monitor the sun's eastern limb for developments.
Images and updates may be found at http://spaceweather.com

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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since:10/04/08

#13 [url]

Sep 22 09 8:41 PM

Seems like we are getting the "bait and switch" treatment with this constant talk of sunspots and the hf band is still just about dead. I have watched the propagation trends for a long time now and I have never seen anything like the so called "solar cycle 24" saga. Maybe this is the time when sunspots won't increase.

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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since:10/04/08

#14 [url]

Sep 23 09 3:52 PM

 

Equinox Sunspots

In a year when the sun has been utterly blank 80% of the time, the sudden emergence of two large sunspots in a single day is a noteworthy event. Today is such a day, says a report on the spaceweather.com website.
NASA satellites and amateur astronomers are monitoring a pair of growing sunspots, both apparently members of long-overdue Solar Cycle 24.
The emergence of these active regions is not enough to end the deepest solar minimum in nearly a hundred years, but they do represent a significant uptick in solar activity.
Check http://spaceweather.com for images and updates

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sispy

Posts: 1,579 Member Since:11/05/08

#15 [url]

Sep 24 09 11:25 PM

Solar cycle driven by more than sunspots

ScienceDaily reports that new research finds that the number of sunspots provides an incomplete measure of changes in the Sun's impact on Earth over the course of the 11-year solar cycle.
The study, led by scientists at the High Altitude Observatory of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Michigan, finds that Earth was bombarded last year with high levels of solar energy at a time when the Sun was in an unusually quiet phase and sunspots had virtually disappeared.
NCAR scientist Sarah Gibson and her colleagues focused instead on another process by which the Sun discharges energy. The team analyzed high-speed streams within the solar wind that carry turbulent magnetic fields out into the solar system.
Read the full ScienceDaily report 'Solar Cycle Driven By More Than Sunspots; Sun Also Bombards Earth With High-speed Streams Of Wind' at
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/
090917131556.htm


Thanks to George Boorer ZL3PN for spotting this item

For the latest information about Ham Radio, Communications, Radio News, Space, Radio History...Join me in the discussion at hamchatforum.lefora.com

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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since:10/04/08

#16 [url]

Oct 16 09 9:37 PM

Where are we on Solar Cycle 24?

Steve G0KYA, has released his October Podcast, which features an interview with the ARRL's propagation expert Carl K9LA, recorded at the RSGB convention.
In the podcast they talk about the progress of Solar Cycle 24 and also the effect of galactic cosmic rays on top band propagation.
See www.g0kya.blogspot.com or search for "G0KYA" on iTunes.

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w8eeo

Posts: 2,219 Member Since:10/04/08

#17 [url]

Oct 26 09 10:11 AM

Sunspot 1029

SpaceWeather.com reports that sunspot 1029 is growing rapidly and crackling with C-class solar flares.
The spot's magnetic polarity indicates membership in new Solar Cycle 24, a sign that the sunspot cycle is unfolding as it should - albeit slowly.
Region 1029 (N14W01) is now a 13-spot bipolar sunspot group.
A video of sunspot 1029 can be seen at
http://spaceweather.com/images2009/25oct09/
1029_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=nsn1aprk6thsbdi6ekhfau4512

Space Weather
http://spaceweather.com/
Solar Cycle 24
http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Thanks to George Boorer ZL3PN for spotting this item.

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spurn

Posts: 12 Member Since:02/13/10

#18 [url]

Feb 15 10 5:03 AM

The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.

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vuglo

Posts: 10 Member Since:02/19/10

#19 [url]

Feb 19 10 1:42 PM

May 8, 2009 -- Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.
June 27, 2008  During the annual Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, CO in May, 2008, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel released an update to the prediction for the next solar cycle. In short, the update is that the panel has not yet made any changes to the prediction issued in April, 2007. The panel expects solar minimum to occur in March, 2008. The panel expects the solar cycle to reach a peak sunspot number of 140 in October, 2011 or a peak of 90 in August, 2012.
April 25, 2008  The official NOAA, NASA, and ISES Solar Cycle 24 prediction was released by the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel on April 25, 2007. The Prediction Panel included members from NOAA, NASA, ISES and other US and International representatives. Press Briefings and presentations at the SEC Space Weather Workshop, plus additional announcements and information from the Panel are linked below. The Panel expects to update this prediction annually.

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miamipoint

Posts: 10 Member Since:02/19/10

#20 [url]

Feb 19 10 1:44 PM

Now, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, a team of astrophysicists, has made a new prediction about the upcoming solar cycle.  The peak is expected to be about May 2013, four years from now and about two years later than the earliest forcasts.  This peak is expected to be a rather weak one, with an average sunspot number of 90.   This is the consensus of the panel.  It should be noted that the panel did not reach a unanimous agreement, but most are in support of this consensus prediction.  We are much better today than we used to be in forecasting solar activity,

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